Friday 15 August 2014

Title, Top Four, Europe, Relegation: Who Will Finish Where?

I remember doing this blog a year ago ahead of the 13/14 season and how times have changed since then. Will Manchester City retain their title? Who will make the top four? Will any of the promoted clubs stay up? Here is what I think. Feel free to make your comments if you agree or disagree.



1ST - CHELSEA

I predicted Chelsea to win the league 12 months ago simply because they had Jose Mourinho at the helm. They were only a world-class striker away from winning the title last season and they seem to have got that in Diego Costa, who arrived from Athletico Madrid this summer. Cesc Fabregas from Barcelona is the signing of the summer in my opinion as he is one of the best midfielders in the world. He has previously played in the Premier League with Arsenal, adding a host of experience, and ticks a lot of the boxes in Chelsea's midfield. Fan legend Didier Drogba is also back and his experience will certainly help them this year.

Defensively Chelsea are solid and also never lost against any of the traditional top teams, unless you count Everton into that mix. Losing against teams like Crystal Palace, Aston Villa and, more crucially, Sunderland cost them the title last year and I am sure the Blues won't make that mistake again.

2ND - MAN CITY

If you remember who my top two was, and well done if you did, then you will notice it hasn't changed this year.

Man City technically have the best squad in the league, with players like Sergio Aguero, Jesus Navas, David Silva, Vincent Kompany and Yaya Toure able to be match winners from Manuel Pellegrini's side.

But when these players are missing is when you notice how different they look on the pitch. This is arguably where the management is crucial. The reason Chelsea can generally cope when big names are missing is because Mourinho knows how to get the best out of his players.

When Pellegrini was appointed last year, I didn't know what to expect from City. But we got attacking football and he won two trophies - the Capital One Cup and the Premier League.. But it is very difficult to maintain the success in back-to-back seasons. Ever since the 2009/10 season not one team has won the title consecutively.

I suspect that is because everyone else will up their game against you, especially if you carry the label of Champions. The so-called 'smaller' teams usually at least try to fire themselves up for the big matches so more often than not they are harder to beat.

3RD - ARSENAL

I have read some pundits' predictions, with some saying the Gunners won't finish in the top four while others say Arsene Wenger's side will win the league.

Last season was the same but this time, however, there are three major differences:

The first is obviously that Arsenal have won silverware since then - the F.A. Cup in may against Hull City and the Community Shield recently against Man City (which usually counts as a trophy for the winning team). Confidence will be high, especially after ending their nine-year wait for a trophy and demolishing the Champions, proving they can compete against title challengers on their day.

The second is Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez. Yes I know Ozil didn't have a great first season but he wasn't that bad either. Look at Eden Hazard, who performed brilliantly in his second season for Chelsea. I think we are yet to see the best of him in the Premier League. Sanchez could take a while to adapt to England's top flight of football. But if he performs to his potential, then Arsenal could be in with a shout of winning the league.

The third is that they genuinely challenged for the league last season, as they lead the table for 128 days. That means they look closer than ever to win a first league title since 2004.

There are signs that Arsenal are heading in the right direction and, while I wouldn't rule them out of the title race, I don't think they are there yet. They need a world class finisher up front but top four should be easily achieved.

4TH - MAN UTD

Whether they win the title or not, surely Manchester United can't be as bad as last season, can they?

I knew it would be a hard season, not to mention one with transition, but to go from first to seventh is unheard of. I don't think David Moyes was given enough time to work properly with what he had but the job of managing Utd just proved too big for him.

Louis van Gaal is now at the helm at Old Trafford and has brought Southampton left-back Luke Shaw with him as well as Ander Herrera from Athletic Bilbao.

This will be a fresh transitional period and, even though some fans will disagree with me, I don't think they've strengthened enough for the title. But their squad is good enough for the top four and for me they should achieve that.

It is crucial that van Gaal gets the fear factor back into the players and that way he will get the best out of them. I think it will take at least a couple of seasons in order to get back to the dominant force they were but then again I could be proven wrong.

5TH - LIVERPOOL

The top four was always a tricky one to predict this season given how well Brendan Rodgers' side did last year. They did overachieve but their style of attacking football was great to watch from a neutral point of view. While their defence was extremely leaky for a team who want to challenge for the title, signing Dejan Lovren from Southampton is a smart buy for me as he can only improve things at the back.

Adam Lallana and Rickie Lambert will be good buys for me too and have added Divock Origi, Lazar Markovic and Emre Can from Lille, Benfica and Bayer Leverkusen respectively.

Despite all the numbers, however, the biggest problem is the sale of Luis Suarez to Barcelona. Even for £75m, Liverpool could struggle to replace the class and goals he gave them. Even though he has been an idiot, you have to admit Suarez is one of the best players in the world when you look at talent alone.

If Daniel Sturridge has a clinical season and the Reds reduce the number of goals they concede then they could still make a push at the top end of the table. But the loss of Suarez will affect them and will possibly change the way they play.


Again, I could be completely wrong but while I think Liverpool will be up there challenging for the top four, they will just fall short unless they get a world-class replacement for Suarez.

6TH - EVERTON

Signing last season's top scorer Romelu Lukaku from Chelsea was a genius move from boss Roberto Martinez. Lukaku did so well with them last season while on loan that I think he will repay the £28m Everton paid for him.

Christian Atsu and Gareth Barry have also joined on a season-long loan and a free transfer respectively both of which I feel is great business. Atsu has a lot to prove and Everton will be a good club for his development. Barry, who did well on loan last season, is a fantastic addition especially for free.

But Everton's style under Martinez suits them, evident by the fact that they nearly got top four last season and only just missed out on the Champions League, comfortably finishing fifth.

I don't think they will do as well as last year but they should be up there. Then again, if Lukaku gets them enough goals then anything is possible.

7TH - TOTTENHAM

Already I can tell Spurs fans will disagree with me on this but I think they will probably have a similar experience that Liverpool had with Brendan Rodgers in his first season. Mauricio Pochettino has done a remarkable job at Southampton and he could be the right fit for Tottenham but he needs time.

I am sick of seeing Spurs change managers every season. Harry Redknapp and Andre Villas-Boas were unfairly sacked and if they don't have a good start to this season, I fear the same could be in store for Pochettino.

DeAndre Yedlin, Eric Dier, Ben Davies and Michel Vorm have all come in which should strengthen Tottenham at the back but they haven't strengthened up front. But extending Harry Kane's contract can only be a good move for them as, with the right guidance, could become a great striker for them.

Emmanuel Adebayor and Roberto Saldado need to have good seasons and score goals to help Spurs' top four ambitions. The midfield needs to step up as well as the likes of Erik Lamela and Nacer Chadli were disappointing last year. Christian Eriksen needs to repeat  his good form of last year too.

I don't see Spurs breaking into the top four for a while but if Pochettino did it in his first year, then surely he would be contender for manager of the season.

8TH - STOKE

Mark Hughes did a great job to build on Tony Pulis' success at the Potters and achieved their highest ever Premier League finish if my memory serves me right.

Their transfers have looked decent and I reckon they already have a good side in them, but not one to further push up past mid-table. If they get Victor Moses from Chelsea on loan then that's a signing worth going for.

Still, the Britannia Stadium has always been difficult for visiting teams to come to and that is the key to Stoke's success over the years. Another good season in the works for me.

9TH - NEWCASTLE

Some Newcastle fans have claimed Alan Pardew's side can make the top six. Slow down and come to a halt!

Right, the toon are nowhere near that good. Yes they have made signings, decent ones too by the looks of it, but they need to improve in their defence and they desperately need a goalscorer.

Papiss Cissé is awful at finishing and doesn't know the offside rule whereas Emmanuel Riviere has a lot to prove in the Premier League.

Their midfield is decent, especially Remy Cabella and Siem De Jong, and the strikers will get hosts of chances but they just need to finish them off.

10TH - SWANSEA

Gary Monk enters his first season in charge of the South Wales club and their fourth season in the Premier League.

Last season Wilfred Bony pretty much kept Swansea in the Premier League, but they also had the Europa League to contend with which was why they weren't the same team as they were in 2012/13.

Their best brand of football should return for me. Look at the way they played at Sunderland at the very end of last season. That was a sign their best football was back.

A top 10 finish should be a great season for the Swans, especially as they have Gylfi Sigurdsson back at the Liberty Stadium and Lukasz Fabianski to replace Michel Vorm.

11TH - SUNDERLAND

Gus Poyet looks as though he has finally steadied the ship at Sunderland. After last season where they brought in a host of new players for quantity purposes, this time they look as though they are brining some quantity in but, more importantly, quality.

Sunderland are one of the teams who I think is due a really good season, but that would require they start well. Too many times have the fans been built up to expect something great only to be disappointed.

Jack Rodwell, in particular, could be a statement of intent signing for the Black Cats. Whatever you can say of his injury record, the fact that they bought him for £10m, rather the easy option of a loan, says a lot about Poyet's intentions this season.

If Sunderland can keep it tight at the back, which is the major thing Poyet has improved since taking over from Paolo Di Canio, and get goals regularly up front then they could be my surprise package in a good way.

Their cause can only be helped if they permanently sign Liverpool striker Fabio Borini.

12TH - WEST HAM

Sam Allardyce is yet another manager who needs a good season. The board have demanded a top 10 finish and more attacking football, both of which could easily happen.

However, they need to have a striker who is going to reach double figures every season and Andy Carroll, while he suits the Hammers' system, is far too injury prone.

Diafra Sakho has recently joined from FC Metz but time will tell if he is the answer to their problems.

On the plus side, they can be organised and solid at the back, which should get them draws this season. They just need to improve upfront and they can be a good side.

13TH - SOUTHAMPTON

Disastrous is one of the words that sum up Southampton's summer transfer window so far.

Letting go of all their best players is one of the biggest blows for any team, let alone a 'smaller' club.

But there is some optimism for Saints' fans. Morgan Schneiderlin and Jay Rodriguez have stayed so far, both of whom are decent players. Fraser Forster and Shane Long are two decent players to have come in, albeit the latter is overpriced and Ryan Bertrand will, to an extent, replace Luke Shaw.

Ronald Koeman has a job on his hands to replace Mauricio Pochettino but I don't think the South Coast club will be in any danger of relegation.

14TH - Q.P.R.

Out of the three teams, I think Q.P.R. are the best equipped to stay in the Premier League. For starters, they have been in the division much more recently than the other two promoted clubs.

In my opinion, they have a decent squad coupled with a good manager in Harry Redknapp. The pairing of Rio Ferdinand and Steven Caulker will be crucial to their chances of staying up and I think they will be difficult to score past this season.

They have three winnable home games early on in the season and a good start would only further their confidence and belief that they can stay up.

15TH - CRYSTAL PALACE

In the shock of Tony Pulis leaving not even two days before the season starts, I can see many tipping the Eagles to do down in their second season in the top flight.

For me, it completely depends on who they get as manager. Malky Mackay would be a good choice for me as club and man would link up quite well in that sense. They would still give teams a good go, especially at home.

If Palace remain organised and solid at the back as they were under Pulis, then they could be ok but I wouldn't write their survival chances off just yet.

16TH - ASTON VILLA

Paul Lambert's side are in trouble. The Villains (and how appropriate is that name right now) aren't trying to make any steps forward.

It seems they are now content just to avoid relegation each season even though they should be aiming for at least a comfortable top 10 finish given their history.

I couldn't particularly name a Villa signing that has convinced me they will do well this year and I believe they will be in a relegation dogfight again. They usually always have a good patch in the season but somehow find a way to be dragged back down to ultimately stay up.

17TH - HULL

As with Newcastle and Swansea in the previous two seasons, I do wonder whether the Europa League will have a negative effect on Hull's season.

Signings such as Tom Ince, Robert Snodgrass and Jake Livermore could help them avoid second season syndrome and I think they could struggle this year.

I can't help but feel they will be in a relegation battle but I also believe they have enough quality to stay up and a top manager in Steve Bruce.

18TH - WEST BROM

Although you can argue I am jumping on the bandwagon here, I fear for West Brom this season.

Brown Ideye, their club record signing, could take a while to settle into the Premier League and Joleon Lescott, while a good defender, hasn't had the best injury record.

Alan Irvine has a job on his hands and while he has a good reputation as a coach, he hasn't had much experience as a manager.

Ultimately I feel it's West Brom's own mistake in sacking Steve Clarke last December as they were going in a good direction under him.

I wonder where the Premier League quality is with the Baggies and, because they had such a poor campaign last season, staying up could be one step too far this time.

19TH - LEICESTER

Yet another example of a manager who could become a victim of his own success in Nigel Pearson.

He did superbly well not only to get Leicester promoted last season, but to have them dominate the Championship and end the season as convincing champions.

Predicting the relegated teams is the most difficult part of predicting the final league table in May as many as eight or nine teams could be sucked in the battle to avoid the drop.

Although this could be nothing to go by, in the previous three seasons, the team that has won the Championship has always finished the lowest out of the teams who come up.

Though they survived, Q.P.R. just finished 17th by the skin of their teeth in the 2011/12 season. Reading and Cardiff lasted just one season in the top flight in 2012/13 and 2013/14 respectively.

I will stress this now, I would not be surprised if the Foxes stay up as they easily have the potential and manager to do so. I follow a few Leicester fans on Twitter and they all seem very genuine so I wish them success.

20TH - BURNLEY

The Championship runners-up will relish life in the Premier League, having been out of it since the 2009/10 season and trying to break back into it ever since.

Sean Dyche has done really well to get Burnley promoted, especially as their once relied upon striker Charlie Austin was sold to Q.P.R. and Danny Ings has wonderfully stepped in.

They have made some additions to their squad but I wonder whether it is good enough to stay in the Premier League. At this moment in time, I doubt it is but also depends on who they sign in this transfer window and in January.

Turf Moor will be a cracking atmosphere for visiting teams, starting with Chelsea and Man Utd.

But if Burnley find themselves deep in a relegation battle then I hope the board stick with Dyche but sadly managers can be a victim of their own success, as the past has shown. Look at Neil Warnock with Q.P.R. Brian McDermott with Reading.

Monday 4 August 2014

Should Sunderland fans be worried by the lack of transfers?

Well, that depends on what you consider a successful transfer window. Look at the previous three transfer windows along with this one and you will notice a pattern emerging.
Steve Bruce signed a new team but was sacked in
November 2011.



With Steve Bruce at the helm prior to the 11/12 season, we signed a whole team and, while some of the players were actually decent or better, it took them a while to gel together. 

The following season we had a different manager in Martin O'Neill, where we signed Carlos Cuellar, Louis Saha, Steven Fletcher, Adam Johnson and Danny Rose. 

Fan favourite Martin O'Neill couldn't build on his early success
at Sunderland and was sacked in March 2013.


The season after that we had the one-time guilty pleasure Paolo Di Canio. But Roberto De Fanti brought in 14 new players including Fabio Borini, Vito Mannone, Emanuele Giaccherini and Ki Sung Yeung. 

And now look at Gus Poyet's first summer transfer window, where we have signed Billy Jones, Jordi Gomez and Costel Pantilimon all on a free as well as former Chelsea left-back Patrick van Aanholt.

You notice the pattern? We either don't make enough signings in the search for quality or we settle for quantity and hope that will be enough.

Paolo Di Canio knee-slid his way to lose manager's job after
five games into the 13/14 season with 14 new players unable
to gel.
Either way, Sunderland have never looked healthy for the start of the new Premier League season. More often than not, we have a poor start and end up playing catch up further on in the season.

That is essential to the 2014/15 season; Sunderland MUST start reasonably well and not have to wait four or five games in for their first win.

West Brom away is realistically the best (and coincidentally first) chance to pick up three points, for a visit from a new-look Manchester United and a trip to newly-promoted Queens Park Rangers are two very tough assignments.

Any of the newly promoted teams are always hard to play against at the start of the season as they always have a point to prove. Sunderland haven't faired well when facing a side with the fresh buzz of sealing promotion early into the Premier League campaign.

But back to transfers, as Chris Young, SAFC writer for the Sunderland Echo, puts it, we must get it right this time.

For me, Sunderland desperately need at least one or two strikers, a left-sided midfielder, a creative midfielder, another centre back and another full-back wouldn't go a miss either.

Players including Santiago Vergini, Samuel Eto'o Jordan Mutch, Jack Rodwell, Danny Welbeck and Fabio Borini have been mentioned in the fold of potential arrivals on Wearside.

Mutch, one of the bright lights in Cardiff's bleak season, looks like he is going to QPR. I am disappointed a little, but we should surely have better ambition than this.

According SkyBet and SkySports, Rodwell is looking increasingly likely to join Sunderland for a fee in the region of £10m.

People straight away will question the price tag but, to be honest, I'd much rather Sunderland show some ambition and pay that fee for him than loan him. We shouldn't be a stepping stone club for loan players to then go and never see us again. We should be aiming to make ourselves better, not make players better for other clubs.

Borini would be another great edition if we sign him and for that I will wait and see what will unfold.

Welbeck would suit Sunderland perfectly. He was on loan with us in 10/11 and he has the pace for the Premier League as well a good work rate.

Eto'o is hit-and-miss for me in terms of likelihood but for free, I would take a striker who, at 32 years-old, proved he could score for Chelsea.

But, back to the original question, should Sunderland fans be worried by the lack of transfers?

To me, the answer is no but others will inevitably have a different opinion. Last season, we got quantity over quality, they took ages to settle in and we paid an early price for it.

This season, if we sign Premier League quality with some experience, then this season can be a good one. Mid-table comfort would be nice for a change, which is where we really should at this moment, not constantly fighting at the bottom.

I'm not desperately worried just yet, but three or four new players by the curtain opener at West Brom would be a big help to Sunderland's start to the season.